The rare earth market as a whole has maintained an upward trend this week. The quotations and transactions of mainstream products have steadily moved upwards. With the realization of subsequent positive factors, the sales of upstream companies have been tightened, and the subsequent increase is still expected.
July has ended, the remaining time left for the implementation of the National Reserve of Rare Earths has been shortened again, and the industry is generally confident in the further advancement of the National Reserve in August. Compared with before, the willingness of large factories to stockpile and maintain inventory is stronger, and the possibility of light rare earths being included in purchasing and storage is increasing again.
This week, the sales reluctance and price sentiment of the major companies of the group have increased significantly, and the NdPr and Tb products are the most prominent. Downstream and trade inquiries have become more frequent. The futures orders for some of the NdPr metal factories have been scheduled to September, and the market for bulk cargo The amount of terbium oxide is even scarcer, leading groups no longer sell neodymium praseodymium, and heavy rare earth groups are still reluctant to export terbium oxide even if the price is high. At the same time, the rest of the products were also supported by the overall positive expectations, or stabilized or rose.
Affected by the positive expectations of the National Reserve, the current supply and demand environment shows that the demand has not changed much and the supply has shrunk significantly. Some groups are still increasing their inventory to ensure the delivery of goods. The downstream inquiries are frequent but the inquiries are still not counted for the metal praseodymium and neodymium. Take the initiative, but with the solid rise of oxides, even if the downstream prices are still low, there is still little effect, and some magnetic materials companies report that they are communicating with end customers to increase the price of rough.
Compared with terbium, the quotation of dysprosium products has been raised, but for the time being, the transaction only remains stable, and the focus of the industry has also shifted to terbium and praseodymium. However, it is judged that there is still room for dysprosium products in the future. First of all, the external supply of heavy rare earths may further shrink. Myanmar's rainy season is approaching and the general election is approaching. Although there are profit stimuli, Myanmar's mining is still difficult to achieve growth. Second, the State Reserve’s political tasks are becoming more urgent. The US camp’s strategy toward China has begun to be subtle, and the external environment has intensified. It is urgent to ensure strategic resource reserves. Not only rare earths, but other non-ferrous metals have also begun to be affected by the national reserve, and the strategic significance of rare earths is the most necessary.
Future forecast: There is a high probability of bright spots in the rare earth industry in the third quarter of 2020, and long-term deliberation and expectations are more likely to be realized in this quarter. Under the guidance of favorable factors, the rise of neodymium praseodymium products is expected to continue or even accelerate in a certain period of time. Although dysprosium and terbium products are at a high level, market confidence will continue to remain high, and over time, industry confidence will increase unabated. Similarly, the violent fluctuations brought about by the favorable conditions will become a highlight in the history of rare earth trends.
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